THREE THINGS TO DO ON OFFENSE
1: Get Out Of The Way!
The Cavaliers have this move where they like to send Anderson Varejao or Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the top of the key to set a pick for LeBron James. While I agree that the pick-and-roll is a valuable weapon, James passes the ball out of this situation maybe 15% of the time. Thus, all the Cavs are doing is bringing a second defender up to guard James given that neither Andy or Z are high-percentage from 20-feet out. If Pavlovic wants to pick, I’m all for it. Otherwise, run your P-N-R’s from a little closer in, as Z’s lethal from 12-feet.
2: Create Earlier & Post Up
I’m grouping these together as they go hand-in-hand. The "Dribble around until six seconds remaining" plays are enough to give any fan a heart attack. Given the Spurs defense, the Cavaliers will need to create plays a lot sooner, or they’ll find themselves attempting entirely too many jump shots to contend through seven games. While I don’t agree with launching prayers with 12 or 13 seconds remaining on the shot clock, there’s nothing wrong with open looks before the buzzer. One way to create? Simple. Post up Bruce Bowen. James should be able to crush Bowen in the post, as Brucey is simply a pesky defender for jump-shooters. If LeBron posts up Bowen, not only will the shots come earlier, but they will be from a lot higher percentage range.
3: Simple - Hit Open Shots
Well, it should be simple. The Cavs have a knack for getting open looks due to the respect for James, but they’re not converting at a high enough rate. It’s to the point where teams give players like Eric Snow and Hughes about six feet of space as they’re not going to shoot consistently. Key players in this series are going to be those that can drain open shots ala Daniel Gibson in Game Six. Donyell Marshall will be given his shots as well, and may even provide a nice mismatch. However, if LeBron is being double or even triple-teamed, the only way the Cavs will succeed is if the open man can hit a shot.
THREE THINGS TO DO ON DEFENSE
1: Deny First, Foul Second
Rumors have it that we may be seeing a little more Scot Pollard in the Finals. Why now? Well, it’s six free fouls... that’s why. Pollard is a fan favorite in Cleveland, but he’ll be spelling Ilgauskas and Varejao on occasion in this series. He’ll be asked to simply deny the pass in to the post, but if Tim Duncan gets his hands on the ball, which will be often, there’s no reason to not make him earn his points at the free-throw line.
2: Keep Tony Parker Outside Of The Key
Tony Parker is one of the best shooters from the floor in the NBA, which is amazing given the fact that he’s a point guard. However, this is due to the fact that he gets so many lay-ins and fast break points. The Cavs must attempt to keep this game to half-court sets as much as possible, while forcing Parker outside of his comfort zone. Low-percentage shots will be the death of San Antonio... it’s just a matter of forcing the attempts.
3: Don’t Get Greedy
While Tony Parker and Tim Duncan aren’t the best shooters, Michael Finley, Manu Ginobili, Brent Barry, and Bowen are probably among some of the better ones in the NBA. If the Cavaliers get too greedy on the double-teams, neither Parker nor Duncan will hesitate to kick the ball outside for the long-ball attempt. While the Cavs have been somewhat hot from beyond the arc, the last thing they want to do is get into a 3-point contest with the Spurs. Just ask the Utah Jazz.
PREDICTION:
I know I’m in the minority here, but couple the 2-0 mark during the regular season with the streak that the Cavaliers have been on, I’m going out on a limb here. The Cavs are easily the best defensive team that the Spurs have faced in the playoffs. While not as solid on the offensive side as the Suns, the Cavs defense should be able to clamp down when needed. LeBron James has been huge in must-win games, and his supporting cast has rallied around him. When James gets his Incredible-Hulk-Not-Going-To-Lose face going, there’s no telling what can happen. Cavs in seven.
